Grigore Pop-Eleches, Professor of Politics and International Affairs

“There are no real reasons to believe that Putin is genuinely interested in peace negotiations (and Russia appears to have broken the ceasefire already). Furthermore, if the conditions are primarily based on a deal between Trump and Putin about dividing Ukrainian land and resources and lack meaningful input from Ukraine (and Europe), then they are problematic both ethically and practically, and cannot be the basis for lasting peace.”

Jacob N. Shapiro, Professor of Politics and International Affairs

“The proposed partial ceasefire agreement is a step in the right direction, but we should not be too optimistic. Most ceasefires in interstate wars do not lead to lasting peace. To get there typically requires that uncertainty on both sides about how the fight will end has been resolved and that the politics on both sides line up for settlement. In this case I worry first that Russian leaders still think they can win on the battlefield if they can stop U.S. support, and second that the politics for Putin of settling without big battlefield gains are not favorable because he will disappoint the right wing of Russian politics.”